Thursday

One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar eruptive events: flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and their associated particle events. Whilst our understanding of the fundamental processes involved with solar eruptions has advanced in recent years with the advent of high-resolution spacecraft imaging, accurate forecasting of these events remains elusive. A multitude of solar flare forecasting methods are now available for operational use, from simple statistical methods based on historical flaring rates to more complex machine learning based methods. Proper evaluation of these products is crucially important for model developers, forecasters, and end-users because it facilitates an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the forecasting process. This presentation will outline current collaborative efforts in solar flare forecasting that are driving international standards based on terrestrial weather forecasting practices, as well as some recent innovations to improve upon the current state-of-the-art in this field.